OBAMA WINS!!!
- Thread starter Stavrose
- Start date
Madrigal
New member
I've been following Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com
This guy is a well known fantasy baseball statistician. He took a stab at the presidential election this year, creating a computer model that ran tens of thousands of daily simulations based on aggregate polling throughout the campaign, to accurately predict the presidential race.
Compare his results to the actual election results. Right down to the popular vote. Simply amazing.
This guy is a well known fantasy baseball statistician. He took a stab at the presidential election this year, creating a computer model that ran tens of thousands of daily simulations based on aggregate polling throughout the campaign, to accurately predict the presidential race.
Compare his results to the actual election results. Right down to the popular vote. Simply amazing.
Madrigal
New member
I saw the picture. Are you okay? It looked painful.
When I saw the pictures of the crowds Grant Park, The Castro in San Francisco and Times Square (with people stopping in the street and getting out of their cars to celebrate. How cool was that?), I was thinking of the Zamfir moment at the end of Return of the Jedi. And I wishing there was a good place to gather in LA. There really isn't. LA is so vast.
But on my way home, all the bars along Melrose Avenue started filling up about 5:30 local time, just after the Pennsylvania call. People were beginning to stir and gather there. I could see all the TV's tuned to the election with dozens of people gathered around each one. Especially in the sports bars. I suspect it was even bigger on the Sunset strip.
It was definitely a "Where were you when..." moment.
Mecinia Lu-a
New member
Can't blame Bush for the deficit, we haven't been debt free as a nation since Andrew Jackson was President.
Bush is at fault for not vetoing pork laden spending.
Congress is at fault for circumventing budget laws by having off budget items that add to the national debt.
The deficits will only grow in the coming years sadly. There is nothing Obama or Congress can do about that unless they make deep cuts in all areas of the federal government (By Deep I mean 30% across the board to everything). They won't do it because they don't have the political will, no one in congress is going to slash domestic spending that much or entitlement programs even though its needed and I doubt they'd cut military spending that much either. They'll just conveniently retire before our train hits that brick wall around 2020 and then as Greenspan has said, It's not my fault (was he quoting Han Solo
)
Madrigal
New member
Done already.
And I really hope he moves closer to the likes of McCain and Hagel and promotes unity among the parties (I think McCain is on board). That is what's most important to me, and its a tremendous responsibility and opportunity. I don't want to see over-reaching. I want to see consensus. Even at the expense of not getting everything I would want from a President Obama.
djmtott
What's my name again?
Selective Service
It's the organization males must register with by their 18th birthday. They keep track of men that would be called into service in the event of a draft.
Obama supports extending that to women, which I agree with.
The way things are now, if the shit ever hit the fan hard enough to put a draft back into place I think it's stupid to exclude half of the population.
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Fluffy
Vote Stewart/Colbert in '08!
As a statistics guy, I love Nate's work, been following 538 for a while now.
He got everything right except for one Senate race. Looks like Stevens will win the AK vote again. The hypothesis is the voters vote him in despite being convicted because they figured he quits/gets fired, the AK governor elects some (R) to replace him. So the people there are voting (R) much more than they are voting Stevens, which I can believe.
Kiah
New member
Racism doesn't exist now because HALF of America voted for a 1/2 black man for president?
Madrigal
New member
I hope she picks her kickass redneck son-in-law.
biggrass420
New member
I wouldn't say racism doesn't exist, I mean there's all kinds of racism, some people don't like the Irish or Italians, I don't hear alot of them using it as an excuse to break the law though. Obama winning this election proves one thing, that no matter what your race or economic background is, if you work your ass off and do the right thing, you can accomplish anything in this country. Also all the black people crying tears of joy on the news last night because America had its first president of color didn't seem to think of him as 1/2 black.
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John'Matrix-TSC
New member
Oh my, are you asking me that or were you making a statement?
Racism is and will always be around. No matter what you do to discourage it, it'll still exist unless we finally evolve ourselves into:
Goobacks.
John'Matrix-TSC
New member
Not that it'd make a difference. Just like women in the military now, all they gotta do to avoid going on a deployment or doing hard work is get pregnant.
That shit ran so rampant in the Navy, we used to have a pool on new females that got transferred to our department to see how long it was before they got knocked up.
djmtott
What's my name again?
Ya, I know all about that. So many women got pregnant aboard DD-978 before a 2000 cruise we called it The Love Boat.
But back to the topic, I don't see a reason to exclude females from the draft register.
Hakan
.
Its tough times for quite a lot pf ppl in the globe, chosing Obama was a right direction for american ppl not becoz its too different but it was a rejection to bush policies which may help to mend the wounds to be healed which bush caused.
Now its time to wait and see if Obama will be competent enuf to sail the american boat thru rough waters and calm the global atmosphere.
Now its time to wait and see if Obama will be competent enuf to sail the american boat thru rough waters and calm the global atmosphere.
Mecinia Lu-a
New member
I hope the world isn't hoping Obama is going to save them.
What folks need to realize is that 90% of what McCain and Obama said during the campaign was rhetoric. It was stuff they knew that the nation could not afford and would not be done.
One of these was McCain's famous quotes of if it takes a 100 years in Iraq. Let's face it if he lives another decade it might be a short miracle. At most he could have served 8 years as president and it is highly unlikely the American people who traditionally hate war would stomach it for much longer, at most 2 years.
Obama promised National Health Care and a Middle Class Income Tax Cut. You can't do both, the only way to afford NHC is to raise taxes to a level that can support it. Like Clinton, the last president to promise both look for a Middle Class Income Tax Hike because he has too and a scaled back if any NHC program because we simply cannot afford it.
Look for us to be out of Iraq and Afghanistan within 2 years. We also may cut back on foreign aid as a necessity. Renegotiation of our trade treaties which favor our partners over us. These will not be easy things to do but considering out economic troubles they are necessary things.
What folks need to realize is that 90% of what McCain and Obama said during the campaign was rhetoric. It was stuff they knew that the nation could not afford and would not be done.
One of these was McCain's famous quotes of if it takes a 100 years in Iraq. Let's face it if he lives another decade it might be a short miracle. At most he could have served 8 years as president and it is highly unlikely the American people who traditionally hate war would stomach it for much longer, at most 2 years.
Obama promised National Health Care and a Middle Class Income Tax Cut. You can't do both, the only way to afford NHC is to raise taxes to a level that can support it. Like Clinton, the last president to promise both look for a Middle Class Income Tax Hike because he has too and a scaled back if any NHC program because we simply cannot afford it.
Look for us to be out of Iraq and Afghanistan within 2 years. We also may cut back on foreign aid as a necessity. Renegotiation of our trade treaties which favor our partners over us. These will not be easy things to do but considering out economic troubles they are necessary things.
djmtott
What's my name again?
Last week a man in Dallas killed himself, and in his goodbye letter he said he wanted Obama to take care of his family for him.
The '100 years' comment is a bit out of context. McCain didn't mean we'd be conducting combat operations for 100 years, he was just showing his support for an ally (Iraq) and was describing a situation like Korea where we've had boots on the ground for 50+ years.
Cahnuuk
Active member
Perhaps it's a sign that the real McCain has returned now that he has no chance of ever being President. Let's hope.