MMOGCHART v22.0
- Thread starter Stavrose
- Start date
djmtott
What's my name again?
Star Wars Galaxies (Accuracy Rating: C)
Since its launch on June 26, 2003, the number of subscribers to Star Wars Galaxies has always been somewhat uncertain. An official statement released by John Smedley, President of SOE, in March 2004 suggested there were then currently between 200,000 and 300,000 subscribers and that SW: G was the second largest MMO in the North American market. I assume he was discounting Ragnarok Online and possibly FFXI in that statement, so I put the number at that time at 275,000. Since then, the number of subscribers has fallen sharply, although there is no official word on exactly how much. In a more recent statement in March 2006, Smedley said that SWG was the fifth largest MMOG in the North American market, behind WoW, EQ, EQ2, and RuneScape, which would put the number of subscribers at that time somewhere between 175,000 and 250,000. Based on previously known data, I put the total number of subscribers for SWG at 190,000 for March 2006. Since then, that number has continued to decline, but the true extent of the decline is still uncertain. As of November 2007, sources indicate the game has approximately 100,000 subscribers, but I believe the number could be much lower. http://starwarsgalaxies.station.sony.com/
Since its launch on June 26, 2003, the number of subscribers to Star Wars Galaxies has always been somewhat uncertain. An official statement released by John Smedley, President of SOE, in March 2004 suggested there were then currently between 200,000 and 300,000 subscribers and that SW: G was the second largest MMO in the North American market. I assume he was discounting Ragnarok Online and possibly FFXI in that statement, so I put the number at that time at 275,000. Since then, the number of subscribers has fallen sharply, although there is no official word on exactly how much. In a more recent statement in March 2006, Smedley said that SWG was the fifth largest MMOG in the North American market, behind WoW, EQ, EQ2, and RuneScape, which would put the number of subscribers at that time somewhere between 175,000 and 250,000. Based on previously known data, I put the total number of subscribers for SWG at 190,000 for March 2006. Since then, that number has continued to decline, but the true extent of the decline is still uncertain. As of November 2007, sources indicate the game has approximately 100,000 subscribers, but I believe the number could be much lower. http://starwarsgalaxies.station.sony.com/
Tiveria
Sheeptastic!
I told a co-worker about WoW's numbers, and thought to myself...they're making at the very least $150 million per month before costs. That's not including box sales, card sales, or other item sales (logowear, etc).
She looked at me and said "so, what is your game about? and I'll be your employee"
She looked at me and said "so, what is your game about? and I'll be your employee"
Azrail Aleback
Hmmm
exupery
Member
I'm not really sure what exactly you are trying to show with that second graph but linear graphs aren't good to show growth in comparison only to itself. You would need to use a logarithmic scale to more accurately show growth against itself.
This is because a linear graph treats all numbers equal. So on the above graph a growth of one million subs takes the same amount of space. That's fine if your comparing it to another MMO's subs, but comparing only to itself the growth from 1 mil to 2 mil represents are far more substantial growth then say from 9 mil to 10 mil. Both are one million, but the former is a 100% growth while the later is only around a 10% growth.
A log scale would also pronounce the "leveling off" effect which I believe you were trying to convey. This is called the law [or problem] of large numbers; it is far easier for a small company (or game, or whatever) to grow than a larger one. If you own a coffee shop you can open another coffee shop across town and instantly double your revenue (all things being equal and assuming the second one performs as well as the first). That's a 100% growth, but now if you wanted to replicate that success you would have to open two new stores. Now imagine you are Starbucks, with tens of thousands of stores, they can't simply open up 10,000 more stores (where the hell would they put them? inside other Starbucks?) so growth is far more difficult than for you and your one (or two) coffee shops than for Starbucks. But they also make a lot more money, so even if they grow at 1% that is still more of a growth (in dollar terms) than your coffee shop's double or triple digit growth.
I think WoW is pretty much close to peak growth right now. Maybe another mil or two when the next expansion comes out, but I'm guessing around spring/summer of 2009 their sub numbers will peak and start going down. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a great game and I love it - but from a growth standpoint I'm pretty sure everyone who is interested in playing WoW is already playing it.
In the stock market many analysts measure something's saturation by when it goes "mainstream" - for example when you see the cover story of Newseek about how high the price of gold is, it's pretty much peaked and expect it to start going down. WoW has been mentioned in TV shows from Jeapordy to South Park and has been featured in commercials for major brands such as Toyota and Coke - and though that certainly bodes well for their success, it also can potentially mean that they're growth is at or near it's peak.
This is because a linear graph treats all numbers equal. So on the above graph a growth of one million subs takes the same amount of space. That's fine if your comparing it to another MMO's subs, but comparing only to itself the growth from 1 mil to 2 mil represents are far more substantial growth then say from 9 mil to 10 mil. Both are one million, but the former is a 100% growth while the later is only around a 10% growth.
A log scale would also pronounce the "leveling off" effect which I believe you were trying to convey. This is called the law [or problem] of large numbers; it is far easier for a small company (or game, or whatever) to grow than a larger one. If you own a coffee shop you can open another coffee shop across town and instantly double your revenue (all things being equal and assuming the second one performs as well as the first). That's a 100% growth, but now if you wanted to replicate that success you would have to open two new stores. Now imagine you are Starbucks, with tens of thousands of stores, they can't simply open up 10,000 more stores (where the hell would they put them? inside other Starbucks?) so growth is far more difficult than for you and your one (or two) coffee shops than for Starbucks. But they also make a lot more money, so even if they grow at 1% that is still more of a growth (in dollar terms) than your coffee shop's double or triple digit growth.
I think WoW is pretty much close to peak growth right now. Maybe another mil or two when the next expansion comes out, but I'm guessing around spring/summer of 2009 their sub numbers will peak and start going down. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a great game and I love it - but from a growth standpoint I'm pretty sure everyone who is interested in playing WoW is already playing it.
In the stock market many analysts measure something's saturation by when it goes "mainstream" - for example when you see the cover story of Newseek about how high the price of gold is, it's pretty much peaked and expect it to start going down. WoW has been mentioned in TV shows from Jeapordy to South Park and has been featured in commercials for major brands such as Toyota and Coke - and though that certainly bodes well for their success, it also can potentially mean that they're growth is at or near it's peak.
PrOdiGy
Female Boob Inspector
banana i am sure a company like blizzard will be thinking about other products by now once wow inevitably (and not soon enough) dies. i just cant really see where they could take the warcraft francise after this tbh other than a graphics overhaul 
also how often is it a company makes 2 insanely popular games like that on the bounce without them being some form of sequel?
also how often is it a company makes 2 insanely popular games like that on the bounce without them being some form of sequel?
I wouldn't say it's fucked. Starcraft II looks pretty promising for RTSers. I'm not a Starcraft fan myself, but I know many people are. Blizzard also snagged up diablo4 domains for some weird reason. They have an arsenal up their sleeves. Blizzard is smart. They wait for other companies to innovate the shit out of the a new generation of MMOs, and they just come out with a finely polished MMO that encompasses all the positives. I'm sure Blizzard will do the same for the next generation of MMOs. Companies like Areae, Linden, and FunCom will lead the way in innovation, and Blizzard will show up in 2015 with the next "WoW."